这段日子以来，所有人都在讨论一部电影：《阿凡达》。有人为了它一大早4点就去排队等开门买票，有人跟团出国去看电影。究竟阿凡达有什么魅力足 以吸引这么多的观众，赚那么多的票房？有关专家分析出了六大理由，其中不乏商业之道、运营策略，也许也会让你在职场工作中有所启示。

　　It’s been in theaters for three weekends and director James Cameron’s Avatar is still going like gangbusters. Its billion-dollar (and counting) worldwide gross makes it a shoo-in as the all-time second-highest-grossing film, but can it topple the current No. 1, Cameron’s Titanic? Forecasting is a tricky business, and, as with that last Cameron film, analysts are wary of guessing at Avatar’s future. It won’t eclipse Titanic in raw ticket numbers, but there’s a good chance that if Avatar can sustain its holiday-season momentum, it could be well on its way to the biggest-ever worldwide gross (unadjusted for inflation). Here are six factors that could help push the otherworldly epic into the top spot:

　　上映三周，《阿凡达》依旧保持着彪悍的票房。专家估计，如果能保持这样的势头，《阿凡达》将有望在总盈利上超过卡梅隆上一部经典之作《泰坦尼克号》。以下便是专家指出的6个超越理由：

　　1. The hard part is done。

　　It took The Dark Knight seven months to gross $1 billion worldwide. It took Titanic nearly three months. Avatar haspocketed the same amount in a cool 17 days. The market pressure to release a film on DVD means movies aren’t in theaters for seven to eight monthsanymore, as Titanic was. In Avatar’s case, it doesn’t need that muchtime: the heavy lifting is done, and after a scorching three-week kickoff, there’s just (just!) over $800 million to go to beat Titanic’s record。

　　其一，恶战已过，前途光明。

　　《黑暗骑士》7个月时间赚了10亿，《泰坦尼克号》用了3个月的时间，而《阿凡达》仅用了区区17天。因为没有前者那么大的碟片发行压力，加上之前的好成绩，《阿凡达》仅需再加8亿就能轻松击败卡梅隆前作。

　　2. It’s competing against itself。

　　January is historically the dumping ground for the year’s weakest films, and this year looks to be no different: where December had strong commercial fare like Alvin and the Chipmunks: the Squeakquel and Sherlock Holmes, January will average only three wide releases per weekend and boasts only one ballyhooed release (The Book of Eli, starring Denzel Washington). Titanic capitalized on the same January doldrums by roaring past the 1997 holidays to earn most of its cash in 1998. Then again, if you’re operating on as much momentum as Avatar is, "competition can be overrated,"says Brandon Gray, president and publisher of BoxOfficeMojo.com. Thefilm has established itself as a must-see, and "at this point, peoplewho are going to see Avatar are going to see Avatar and would even ifthe slate was strong," Gray argues. The biggest threat to Avatar’s leadcould be when it has to cede 3-D screens to the next 3-D blockbuster, March’s Alice in Wonderland。

　　其二，天下无双，独孤求败。

　　一月档的电影往往都比较弱，12月份好歹还有《艾文与花栗鼠续集》跟《福尔摩斯》分一杯羹，到了一月份就没啥能放在眼里的对手了。当年《泰坦尼 克号》差不多也这状况，但《阿凡达》的优势更明显，它不但把自己打造成了一部不容错过的影片，还将抢占3D荧幕直至3月份的《爱丽丝梦游仙境》上映。

　　3. Marketing the "novelty factor" has succeeded。

　　The water-cooler wisdom you’ve probably heard about Avatar hits at the core of its marketing success: If you want to see this movie, you must see it in a theater. Fox positioned the film as a cinematic event, enticing audiences typically turned off by fantasy or science-fiction films by emphasizing the spectacle and majesty of it all. Call it Netflix proofing: "It’s really hard to sell the idea that you can have the same experience at home," says David Mumpower, an analyst at BoxOfficeProphets.com. "Avatar faced expectations as unreasonable as there are, and it met them. That made it a near-impossible triumph that people suddenly wanted to see."

　　其三，新奇卖点，成功推广。

　　管你怎么再冷静，听说《阿凡达》在电影院看才有效果的时候，你也会忍不住动心。福克斯将该片打造成一部影院盛宴，用卓越的特效和卡梅隆的口碑诱 惑着观众进电影院观看。实际上这年头电影如果在家看在影院看没啥大差别的话，那还真卖不出什么票来。不管这个事实多么不合理，但《阿凡达》的市场推广真的 做到了让本来百般无聊的人们有了想进电影院看片的冲动。

　　4. The Oscars bring the heat。

　　The buzz around a film historically heats up through the Academy Award count down, and Avatar is a near lock to be nominated. Last year, three of the five best-picture nominees saw their domestic per-theater gross increase the weekend after they were nominated, and Slumdog Millionaire saw its domestic per-theater take jump on the weekend after it won the Oscar. For Avatar, nods from the Academy could lure in skeptical holdouts and repeat viewers。

　　其四，得奖呼声，添砖加瓦。

　　在又一届奥斯卡来临之际，《阿凡达》越来越高的得奖呼声无疑也为其票房锦上添花。想去年获5部最佳电影提名的作品中有三部在提名公布后均票房大 涨，而《贫民富翁》更是在成为最终大赢家的那个周末均票房满堂彩。要是《阿凡达》能在本届奥斯卡上有所作为的话，那么又将迎来成千上万的观众，再次观摩该 片。

　　5. There’s a whole world out there。

　　Two-thirds of Titanic’s haul was earned overseas, and Avatar is tracking similarly (compare that with, say, The Dark Knight, which saw a near-even split between North American tallies and what it earned around the rest ofthe globe). Avatar opened in 106 markets globally and was No. 1 in allof them. Markets such as Russia, where Titanic saw modest receipts in 1997 and 1998, are white-hot today, analysts say, with more screens and moviegoers than ever before. Avatar stands poised to reap the benefits, and it has already dotted the globe with box-office records。

　　其五，全球策略，遍地开花。

　　当年《泰坦尼克号》就有三分之二的收入来自海外市场，《阿凡达》也同样如此，它入侵全球106个市场，全都取得了第一名的好成绩。像俄罗斯当年 《泰坦尼克号》的票房平平，但如今《阿凡达》却火爆到白热化，一方面也是因为银幕和放映设施的增加。《阿凡达》生在了一个好时代，足以在全球票房史上名垂 青史。

　　6. Premium ticket prices。

　　Movies in 3-D took in $1.3 billion in 2009, according to Variety, a threefold increase over 2008 and more than 10 percent of the total 2009box-office gross. The increased ticket price—an average of $2 to $3 perticket in most markets—will undoubtedly help pad Avatar’s coffers。

　　其六，票价浮动，水涨船高。

　　搭上3D这茬儿，另外还有IMAX这事儿，票价噌噌地就上去了，《阿凡达》自然因此受益匪浅。

　　None of the above explanations, however, will diminish Avatar’s accomplishment as a (potential) top grosser. "What makes Avatar remarkable is that it has no basis in previously established material," Gray says. The movie might be derivative of many movies in its story and themes, but it had no direct antecedent like the other top-grossing films: Titanic (historical events)， theStar Wars movies (an established film franchise)， or The Lord of theRings (literature). It was a tougher sell, which makes its achievementmore impressive。

　　但以上这些原因都不能说明《阿凡达》究竟为何成为如此凶猛的票房杀手，究其根源，还是因为它是一部史无前例的作品。尽管在剧情和主题上会让人觉 得似曾相识，但在任何一部之前的大片上都看不到这样的先例，无论是历史事件改编的《泰坦尼克号》，还是商业打造的《星球大战》，或者文学作品改编的《指环 王》。《阿凡达》更独特，更赚钱，这也使得它意义非凡。